BUYER-SIDE DUE DILIGENCE FOR SAAS ACQUISITIONS

The Seller Says 2% Churn.
The Raw Data Says Otherwise.
— Verify It Before You Wire

There is no industry-standard churn definition. Sellers report the number their methodology flatters. The raw Stripe objects tell the full story — now you can verify them yourself, free, before you wire the money.

Free and buyer-run: the seller creates a read-only Stripe key, you get the real numbers — MRR by month, active subs vs claimed, refunds, disputes, the promo cliff, concentration. Or send a CSV for a human-reviewed report.

Already working in an AI tool? Use the free ChurnLens MCP server for a first-pass retention, concentration, and unit-economics screen. No account or upload required.

Want a human-reviewed report on top? Send the seller's CSV — first full report $9, money-back if we miss a red flag.

THE HARD TRUTH

The Numbers They Show You
Are Not the Numbers That Matter

SaaS sellers optimize metrics for the pitch deck. Logo churn gets massaged. Revenue concentration gets buried. Annual-plan decay gets ignored. You inherit the mess — and you pay for it.

9%
Median annual revenue churn for B2B SaaS (SaaS Capital 2023 survey) — most sellers quote well below it
5
Defensible ways to compute churn from one export — sellers pick the one that looks best
23
Checks in our buyer-side churn audit checklist — the questions sellers hope you never ask
WHY WE BUILT THIS

Churn Is Not One Number.
Sellers Report the Smallest One.

Logo churn or revenue churn. Gross or net. Best cohort month or trailing twelve. Annual plans counted or quietly excluded. Every choice is defensible in isolation — and every choice makes the number smaller.

The result: the churn figure in a data room is a marketing claim computed by the person selling you the business. It is not an audit. It is not a standard. It is a methodology choice you inherit at closing.

→ So we built the tool that computes churn every defensible way, from the raw export.

"The number that matters is never the one in the deck. It's the one you compute yourself, from the raw rows, before the money moves."

One export in. Every churn metric, concentration risk and zombie account out. That's ChurnLens.

THE CHURNLENS METHOD

Six Signals That Separate
a Good Deal From a Money Pit

Each one is a question sellers hope you never ask. Our report answers all six — directly from the raw data. No guesswork.

🔀

Churn Divergence Detector

The deadliest metric sellers hide. Compares logo churn vs. revenue churn — wide gaps reveal accounts bleeding cash even as headcount holds steady. The wider the gap, the more the headline number is hiding.

⚠️

Concentration Vulnerability Index

Quantifies exactly how much of MRR sits with your top 3 accounts. A single whale leaving shouldn't erase your entire margin of safety.

📉

Annual-Plan Decay Projection

Annual subscribers are ticking time bombs at renewal. We model who's likely to cancel — and when — so you price that risk into the deal before you close.

🧟

Zombie MRR Detector

Paying customers who haven't logged in for 90+ days. Revenue that looks alive but is already dead. We flag every zombie dollar so you don't pay a multiple on it.

📊

Revenue Quality Scorecard

Composite A–F grade weighing retention, concentration, expansion, and growth trends. One letter that tells you whether to walk or wire.

🔍

MRR Trajectory Forensics

Separates new sales from declining cohorts. Headline MRR can be flat while the underlying base deteriorates. We show you both lines — the story behind the story.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

One Bad Deal Costs More
Than 1,000 Reports

Here's what getting it wrong actually costs. Compared to what ChurnLens costs.

Cost of Getting It WrongEstimated Damage
Overpaying by 20–40% on a $500K deal$100,000 – $200,000
Lost ARR from undetected churn (year 1)$45,000 – $95,000
Whale customer departure within 6 months$60,000 – $150,000
Opportunity cost — capital tied up in a lemonPriceless
ChurnLens full risk report: $9 one-time, no subscription

$9 to avoid a $100K+ mistake. That's the math.

DEAD SIMPLE

You're 3 Steps From
Knowing the Real Numbers

1

Seller Creates a Read-Only Key

For due diligence, the seller creates a restricted Stripe key that can only view data — Subscriptions, Charges, Refunds, Disputes, Events. It cannot change or delete anything, and they can delete it the moment you're done. Copy-paste instructions to send them.

2

You Paste It Here

The verifier reads the raw subscription objects Stripe bills on — read-only, in memory, nothing stored — and computes the buyer-side metrics itself. See exactly how each number is computed.

3

You Get the Report

MRR by month, active subs vs claimed, refunds and disputes, the promo cliff, customer concentration, failed payments — with red flags in plain English and a timestamped, SHA-256-stamped report you can bring to the negotiation. Run the demo first — synthetic data, no key needed.

Less reliable alternative: a seller-supplied CSV report ($9 first report) — a file the seller prepared and can shape. Use it when Stripe isn't the billing system.

SAMPLE OUTPUT — SYNTHETIC DEMO DATA

What Your Risk Report
Looks Like

AcmeSaaS Inc.

Analysis Date: July 21, 2026

D+
Logo Churn (reported by seller) 2.3%
Revenue Churn (actual, from CSV) ▲ 9.4%
Churn Divergence Gap 7.1 pts — CRITICAL
Top 3 Customers / Total MRR 47% — HIGH RISK
Zombie MRR $4,250/mo (18% of base)
Annual Renewal Risk (12mo forecast) $28K at risk
MRR Growth Quality Stable — organic
PRICING

Start With One Report.
Scale When You're Screening Portfolios.

No contracts. No sales calls. Pick your tier and upload a CSV.

Single Report

Perfect for evaluating one deal

$9

No subscription

  • 1 full CSV analysis with Pro report
  • All 6 risk detectors
  • Revenue Quality Scorecard (A–F)
  • Human-reviewed findings
  • PDF export
  • 48-hour turnaround
Get Your Report — $9

Dealmaker

For firms managing a deal pipeline

$199/mo

  • Unlimited CSV uploads
  • All Pro features
  • API access for bulk analysis
  • White-label reports
  • Multi-target comparison dashboard
  • 12-hour turnaround
  • Dedicated analyst
Go Dealmaker — $199/mo
🛡️

If We Miss a Red Flag,
You Don't Pay.

Here's how confident we are: if our report misses a churn divergence, a concentration risk, or a revenue decay signal that later costs you money — we refund your payment. No hoops. No "credit toward next month." Just your money back.

The risk is on us. Not on your deal.

PROOF

We Have No Customer Testimonials.
Here Is the Work Instead.

ChurnLens is early. We publish no customer quotes, no logo wall and no borrowed credibility of any kind, because we would rather show you the analysis than use someone else’s words. Everything below is checkable before you pay us anything.

A full sample report Every one of the five risks computed and written up on a synthetic $48K MRR target — the exact output you would receive. Read it →
The formulas, open source Churn, NRR, concentration and revenue-quality scoring, MIT-licensed, so you can check our arithmetic against your own. See the code →
Run it yourself, free Nine calculators that never upload your file — the CSV is parsed in your browser and never leaves it. Open the tools →
The method, in full The 5-Risk Buyer-Side Method and the 23-point pre-LOI checklist, published in the open, no signup required to read them. Read the method →
FAQ

You Ask. We Answer.

Is this for sellers or buyers?
Buyers only. Period. ChurnLens is a buyer-side tool. We work exclusively for the acquirer — we have no relationship with the seller, no incentive to make a deal look good. Our only job is to find what the seller's deck left out.
What CSV format do you need?
Any raw subscription export. Stripe, Chargebee, Recurly, Paddle, Braintree — we take them all. Don't clean it. Don't reformat it. Send it raw. If the file has subscription start dates, amounts, customer IDs, and status fields, we can work with it.
How is this different from Baremetrics or ChartMogul?
Those are seller-side dashboards — they show the seller what they want to see. ChurnLens is buyer-side forensics. We don't track ongoing metrics; we dissect one CSV to find what summary dashboards obscure. Different tool, different side of the table.
How fast do I get the report?
Single report: 2 business days. Each report is reviewed by a human analyst — we don't auto-generate and hope for the best.
What if the seller won't share the raw CSV?
That's a red flag in itself. Serious sellers share their data. If they won't, ask yourself what they're protecting. But we've found most sellers will provide the CSV once you frame it as standard due diligence — just like reviewing financials.
Do you store or share the CSV data?
Never. CSV files are deleted after the report is delivered. We do not retain, resell, aggregate, or benchmark against your data without explicit opt-in. Your deal data stays your deal data.

Still have questions? See who ChurnLens is built for · Get the free churn audit checklist · Download due-diligence templates · Churn prediction methods explained

Don't Buy Blind.

The difference between a great acquisition and an expensive surprise is the seller's raw Stripe data. Have a read-only key created and verify the numbers yourself — free, nothing stored.

Run the Free Stripe Verifier

Prefer a human-reviewed report? Send a CSV — first report $9, money-back if we miss a red flag.

Free: verify the seller's Stripe numbers Verify Now →